Will 2023 mark the arrival of the climate apocalypse 鈥� and with it, a call to action? With extreme events and record-breaking temperatures across the world, there is certainly a 鈥減ervasive sense of doom鈥� among the general public, says at the University of Pennsylvania. 鈥淭here is understandable worry over whether it鈥檚 too late, whether we鈥檝e crossed some tipping point.鈥�
The answer to that is complex, but as the emerging El Ni帽o climate pattern builds in strength towards the end of the year, researchers agree that further climate records are likely to tumble.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 interesting is that 2024 is actually shaping up to be warmer than 2023, in part because there鈥檚 a bit of a lag between the peak El Ni帽o conditions in the tropical Pacific and their effect on global temperatures,鈥� says at US non-profit Berkeley Earth. In fact, an unusually strong El Ni帽o could be enough to make 2024 the first year Earth passes 1.5掳C of warming above pre-industrial levels, according to the Met Office, the UK鈥檚 national weather service.
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What does this mean for climate policy? As growing numbers of people experience the effects of cliate change first hand, it will rise to the top of their list of concerns, says at Texas Tech University, chief scientist at US non-profit The Nature Conservancy.
She says one of the primary barriers people face to taking climate action is 鈥減sychological distance鈥�. 鈥淵ou ask people 鈥業s climate change real?鈥� and most people say yes, and then you ask people 鈥榃ill it affect you?鈥� and the numbers plummet. That is psychological distance,鈥� she says.
That barrier is being 鈥渄ismantled鈥� by the extreme weather that has already occurred in 2023, says Hayhoe. 鈥淲ho in the world has not breathed wildfire smoke, or experienced overwhelming heat, or record-breaking floods, or knows people or has been to or used to live in places that have?鈥�
at the University of Reading, UK, feels similarly. 鈥淲e often talk about global temperature change, which no one directly experiences,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut when you live through an extreme weather event, which is being made worse by climate change, then maybe that will help people realise that these are the consequences we鈥檙e going to face. And these consequences are only going to get worse.鈥�
Focusing public attention on these 鈥渁cute鈥� weather events can be a useful way of driving wider engagement with the climate crisis 鈥� and convincing those in power to take tougher action to cut emissions, says Hausfather.
But it also comes with risks. When El Ni帽o fades and weather patterns fall back into something resembling 鈥渘ormal鈥�, people鈥檚 anxiety about climate change is likely to diminish, warns Hayhoe. 鈥淲e have the attention span of a cat chasing a laser,鈥� she says. 鈥淧sychologically, we are completely unsuited to cope with long-term, steadily increasing problems.鈥�
That could lead to a crash in public 鈥� and therefore policy-maker 鈥� interest in climate matters during the mid-2020s, when science suggests we should be doubling down on emissions cuts.
Raising the alarm too forcefully right now, including suggesting that Earth has reached some sort of doomsday 鈥渢ipping point鈥� of no return, could make this potential slump in urgency even more damaging. Last month, the United Nations secretary general, Ant贸nio Guterres, was criticised by some for declaring that 鈥渢he era of global boiling has arrived鈥�, a term without a clear scientific meaning.
鈥淚 appreciate the secretary general鈥檚 effort to create a sense of urgency 鈥� that is needed,鈥� says Mann. But extreme rhetoric can backfire, he says. 鈥淒oes 鈥榞lobal boiling鈥� cross that line? I鈥檓 not sure, but it鈥檚 certainly moving in that direction.鈥�
As a warning, Hausfather points to the previous El Ni帽o event in 2015 to 2016, which was one of the strongest on record and resulted in record-breaking global temperatures. When the planet returned to a La Ni帽a state and the wild weather subsided,. The same could happen again after 2024, says Hausfather. 鈥淚 do think we need to be a little cautious in over-interpreting the role of El Ni帽o as the new normal.鈥�
Mann has similar concerns, warning that 鈥渄oomism鈥� in the face of extreme weather this year undermines the integrity of climate science and empowers those who argue we should do nothing to combat climate change.
鈥淒oomism 鈥� the false notion that there鈥檚 nothing we can do 鈥� has become nearly as great a threat as denial,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t is no more valid to equate the extra warmth from El Ni帽o with 鈥榓cceleration鈥� of global warming then it was for climate deniers to claim that global warming had stopped in the 00s and early 10s because of an extended La Ni帽a.鈥�
So no, this isn鈥檛 the apocalypse 鈥� but as has always been the case, we do need to take action. 鈥淭he truth is bad enough,鈥� says Mann. 鈥淣o need to squander credibility by exaggerating things.鈥�
This story is part of a series in which we explore the most pressing questions about climate change. Read the other articles below:听
What made July the hottest month ever? |听Is climate change really accelerating? |听The pace of the renewable energy revolution | Can humans adapt to heat? | Fight doomism and denial | Climate change and extreme weather
