The evidence is in: we seem to be living though the most extreme of extreme weather events.
Last year, 51动漫 reported early indications that the present El Ni帽o event is probably the strongest ever recorded. A new analysis backs that view.
El Ni帽o is a periodic phenomenon that occurs when ocean temperatures warm in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Even before this current event began, forecasters warned that it was likely to wreak havoc with the world鈥檚 weather.
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鈥淲e have pretty much had it nailed since late summer, early fall that this was going to be a very strong El Ni帽o,鈥� says Jan Null, a meteorologist at Golden Gate Weather Services in Saratoga, California.
But just how strong? At the end of last year, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) revealed that water temperature in the central Pacific had reached 3.1 掳C above average. That shattered the previous all-time high from 1997, when the water at the same time of year measured 2.8 掳C above average.
Null鈥檚 analysis of NOAA鈥檚 fresh data bolsters this view. He score a very strong 2.31 on the , one of the primary measures of anomalies in sea surface temperatures. That鈥檚 up from 2.26 for the last strongest El Ni帽o, in 1997.
Strongest El Ni帽o on record! Nov-Dec-Jan ONI = +2.31, eclipsing +2.26 in OND 1997.
鈥� Jan Null (@ggweather)
The result doesn鈥檛 mean we are guaranteed to see flooding or other disastrous events over the next few months, says Null. 鈥淭he mantra among meteorologists that follow El Ni帽o is that all El Ni帽os are not the same,鈥� he says. 鈥淓ven the very strong ones are not the same. This one is turning out to be a very good poster child for that.鈥�
For example, El Ni帽o is typically associated with drier weather in the Pacific Northwest, but this year the region has seen instead.
However, there is concern that the phenomenon will have a harmful impact on marine life. In the Pacific and Indian oceans, for example, warming water has already kicked off a coral bleaching event.
But some researchers remain to be convinced that the present event is a record 鈥� their view is that it may end up being tied with the 1997 El Ni帽o.
The good news is that the event seems to have reached its peak, and over the next few months.
Read more: Massive El Ni帽o sweeping globe is now the biggest ever recorded
