THE weather is preparing to go wild, and will wreak havoc and death around the globe later this year. An El Ni帽o, a splurge of warm water in the Pacific Ocean, is coming. It will unleash floods in the Americas, while South-East Asia and Australia face drought. Yet little is being done to address these consequences.
鈥淭he tropical climate system is primed for a big El Ni帽o,鈥� says of the University of Hawaii in Honolulu (see diagram).
An El Ni帽o begins when warm water near Indonesia spreads eastwards and rises to the surface of the Pacific. The warm water carries rain with it, so El Ni帽o takes rain from Asia and Australia and dumps it on the Americas (see 鈥�Rising waters鈥�).
Advertisement
The effects can be deadly. A big El Ni帽o in 1997-98 killed 20,000 people and caused almost $97 billion of damage.
Meteorologists contacted by 51动漫 all expect an El Ni帽o at the end of this year. And it looks like a big one, says of CSIRO, Australia鈥檚 national research agency, in Melbourne. The more heat in the Pacific, the bigger the El Ni帽o, and right now, 150 metres below the surface, a is crossing that ocean. 鈥淚t鈥檚 huge,鈥� says Cai.
Yet official forecasts remain cautious. As recently as 5 May, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration only said .
Most El Ni帽o researchers say forecasters are being too conservative. 鈥淥ne thing I hear over and over again is 鈥榳e do not want to create a panic鈥�,鈥� says Timmermann. There is a reason: forecasting a big El Ni帽o would cause a spike in food prices. 鈥淏ut it may be better to have this reaction at an early stage, when farmers can still adapt, rather than later.鈥�
The good news is that El Ni帽o is a known quantity. 鈥淲e already know what happens when a big El Ni帽o hits,鈥� says of the United Nations University in Hamilton, Canada. That means vulnerable populations can be identified and emergency plans put in place. But not everywhere has a plan.
聯We already know what happens when a big El Ni帽o hits. Now vulnerable populations must be identified and emergency plans put in place聰
California, which faces , is well prepared for emergencies and has water rescue teams, says of the University of North Texas in Denton. But Central and South America are more vulnerable (see 鈥�In the firing line鈥�) and it is unclear what will happen in Asia and Australia (see 鈥�Monsoon disruption鈥�). India has invested in water storage in case of drought.
Local forecasts are crucial, says Zafar, because large-scale predictions can get the fine detail wrong. In 1997, after a coarse-grained forecast, away from an area where drought was expected. But .
A big El Ni帽o does not have to be a disaster. Impacts like shifting fish stocks and changes in rainfall can be handled, or even turned into benefits, if people are prepared for them. 鈥淏ut you need that trigger saying 鈥榶es it鈥檚 going to be a big one鈥�,鈥� says Zafar.
Leader: 鈥�El Ni帽o forecasters must not repeat mistakes of 1997鈥�
Monsoon disruption
Asia and Australia will see less rainfall as a result of El Ni帽o, leading to drought and wildfires. But many impacts depend on how El Ni帽o affects the monsoons, which is hard to predict.
鈥淭here is no other phenomenon that can influence the monsoons like El Ni帽o,鈥� says of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune. If it weakens the Asian monsoons, it will threaten the food supply of billions of people.
Most El Ni帽os weaken east Asian monsoons, but the Indian monsoon may survive. El Ni帽os have caused the Indian monsoon to fail, however the 1997-98 El Ni帽o didn鈥檛, despite being the biggest on record (). Kumar says the coming El Ni帽o looks similar to the 1997-98 event, so India might be lucky.
Rising waters
The western US faces storms and floods from an approaching El Ni帽o.
The sea level along California鈥檚 coast may rise 30 centimetres, and then be pushed even higher by storm surges, says of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. Extra water may sound good, because California has been hit by a severe drought. But the raised seas may combine with heavy El Ni帽o rains to cause devastating floods, .
El Ni帽o also brings warmer weather, which melts ice. In 1997, extra river water in North Dakota and Minnesota may have contributed to the worst flood of the Red river since 1826.
In the firing line
When El Ni帽o arrives, Central and South America face a mix of storms, floods and droughts.
These countries are more vulnerable to the effects of El Ni帽o than the US, partly because they have less money. 鈥淧overty is a major cause of vulnerability,鈥� says of the University of North Texas in Denton.
However, more-developed regions are not always better off, says McEntire. Development causes its own problems, such as greater use of dangerous chemicals that can escape during disasters. And wealthier regions produce less of their own food, so can run short quickly.
As a result of all these issues, most countries in Latin America have become more vulnerable to El Ni帽o, says of the International Research Centre on El Ni帽o in Guayaquil, Ecuador. Even though many have El Ni帽o response plans, the risks have grown thanks to population increases and crops being planted in high-risk zones. Such countries can also struggle to give each area a warning that is local enough.
This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淪itting ducks in coming storm鈥�
