The last super El Ni単o brought chaos even to California (Image: ADAM TURNER/AP/Press Association Images)
The bad boy of global weather is on its way. El Ni単o can cause floods, droughts, fires and epidemics around the world, and the next one could be a humdinger.
El Ni単o crashes on to the scene once every four years or so as hot water emerges in the Pacific and moves towards the Americas. This can bring drought to Australia and parts of Asia, while parts of the Americas experience heavy rain, flooding and outbreaks of waterborne diseases. Pacific Islands all the way from Tonga to Hawaii experience more frequent storms. And valuable fish stocks move all around the globe, following water of their preferred temperature.
Many experts are warning of a “super El Ni単o” this time round. “We have this enormous heat in the subsurface that is propagating eastward and it’s just about to come to the surface,” says of the University of Hawaii in Honolulu. “I looked at the current situation and I thought, ‘oh my dear’.”
Advertisement
Similar forecasts were made last year, too, and proved wide of the mark. This time it’s different. For one thing, we are already in an El Ni単o year, which makes it easier for an extreme one to form. “It’s much easier to build up from warm temperatures than from neutral temperatures,” says Timmermann.
Also, this year ocean temperatures seem to be coupled with atmospheric winds in a feedback loop that makes the El Ni単o stronger, says at the CSIRO, Australia’s government research agency. US climate models, on average, are pointing to an El Ni単o comparable to the devastating 1997/98 event, says Timmermann.
Another thing likely to give this year’s El Ni単o an extra kick is the presence of the . A low-pressure system near Australia that boosts westerly winds across the Pacific, it helps unlock the heat fuelling El Ni単o, says of the University of Hawaii at Manoa. “The chance of a large El Ni単o is quite large,” he says.
Timmermann says we should be preparing, clearing rivers of debris in flood-prone areas and storing water in drought-prone areas. “There are lots of win-win things you can do,” he says. He has already installed hurricane clips on his roof, as El Ni単o also increases the chances of hurricanes making landfall on Hawaii.
Topics:
