Intense wildfires burning in Indonesia have likely been ramped up by the building Super El Ni帽o 鈥� and could get much worse if this El Ni帽o event continues to intensify to the record-smashing levels currently forecast.
鈥淭he fire emissions that we鈥檙e estimating are, for the time of year, comparable to previous really big El Ni帽o years,鈥� says at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, who tracks wildfire emissions as part of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service.
Wildfires do normally occur in the region between August to October, but are more intense in El Ni帽o years. 鈥淔ire has certainly been greatly enhanced in those previous El Ni帽o years,鈥� says Parrington.
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During the strong El Ni帽o in 1997 and 1998, wildfires in Indonesia emitted into the atmosphere, equivalent to around a third of annual fossil fuel emissions at the time.
That led to a big jump in global CO2 levels 鈥� the key driver of global heating 鈥� as well as being disastrous for people and wildlife in the region. During another strong El Ni帽o in 2015, wildfires in Indonesia emitted an estimated 1.5 gigatonnes of CO2.
The 2015 and 1997 El Ni帽o are the strongest on record, but the developing Super El Ni帽o could far exceed them.
鈥淭his is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Ni帽o signal this intense in our forecasts,鈥� said at the UK Met Office in . 鈥淚f the forecast is accurate鈥� then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Ni帽o and its worldwide climate influences.鈥�
Definitions vary, but El Ni帽os are generally defined as a sea surface temperature 0.5掳C above normal in part of the Pacific. During 1997 and 2015, temperatures in this region were more than 2掳C above normal, and the Met Office is forecasting the temperature there could exceed 3掳C higher than normal around October.
If the El Ni帽o is as extreme as the Met Office is suggesting, it wouldn鈥檛 be a surprise if the wildfires produced emissions totals similar to those that occurred in previous strong El Ni帽os, says Parrington.
In Indonesia, there have been wildfires on the island of Borneo and in the provinces of West and Central Kalimantan. Smoke pollution has led to school closures and is affecting other countries such as Singapore and Malaysia.
Ground-based sensors in the region are measuring levels of smoke that have previously been detected only in El Ni帽o years, says Parrington. 鈥淎nd we鈥檙e still at the start of the season.鈥�
In much of the region, thick layers of peat have built up beneath rainforests over millennia, storing vast amounts of carbon. The clearing of forests leads to peat drying out, making it more likely to catch fire during hot, dry conditions. Peat fires are very difficult to put out, as they can burn underground.
Next year, there could be particularly intense fires in the Amazon and parts of North America, says Parrington.
The developing Super El Ni帽o will also have many other impacts on weather around the world, bringing heat and drought to areas such as Australia, and more rainfall and flooding to others. Its impact on Europe is uncertain, but Scaife said there could be increased rainfall and storminess during the autumn in the UK.
It isn鈥檛 clear if global heating is making stronger El Ni帽os more likely, but what is clear is that when El Ni帽os occur in a hotter world, their impacts are amplified.
