51动漫

Feedback is our weekly column of bizarre stories, implausible advertising claims, confusing instructions and more

Striving to name polyfailure

WHAT should we call the phenomenon exemplified by Feedback鈥檚 perception that 鈥渁nyone who suspects the probability of a set of independent failures occurring together to be vanishingly small should urgently make plans to cope with them all happening at once鈥� (7 March)? So far, 21 readers have been keen to help.

Six of you suggested Murphy鈥檚 law, also known as Sod鈥檚 law: 鈥淎nything that can go wrong, will go wrong.鈥� Bill Sloman noted the 鈥渘ecessary corollary that whichever name you use for it won鈥檛 be the one used by the person you are talking to鈥�. Bob Malcolm was reminded of a journalist asking a UK Met Office spokesperson, in the aftermath of some weather phenomenon, 鈥淲hy can鈥檛 you predict these freak events?鈥�

Bob also likes the 鈥淟aw of the Inevitability of Freak Events鈥�, or LIFE. This has the advantage of being, like the original question, a bit more specific than Murphy鈥檚 law, which seems to us to be primarily about maddening individual failures. So, too, does Pat Phillips鈥� suggestion of 鈥淏lack Swan鈥� after Nassim Taleb鈥檚 book of that name about unpredictable events. Tony Rimmer may have got to the heart of the difference with his suggestion of 鈥減olymurphism鈥�.

Brian Russell spots an exciting : 鈥溾�� is 420 million year old volcanic rock, finely crushed to release鈥� minerals and trace elements 鈥� 100% organic!鈥�

Portmanteau names proliferate

THE above question also led to inventive portmanteau words: in the context of untoward nuclear events that we mentioned, Ian Beaver鈥檚 鈥渃omplacident鈥�; Alex MacDonald鈥檚 鈥渋mprobaballs鈥�; and Russ Carlson鈥檚 鈥渃oincidencality鈥�. The last should, he proposes, be pronounced, improbably, 鈥渒oh-inky-dink-al-itee鈥�.

Pratchett鈥檚 postulate perhaps

THE late Terry Pratchett also inspired a number of suggestions for naming the phenomenon of the inevitability of improbable combinations of events. Following some unfortunateness with a laser printer 鈥� whose tendency for multiple errors our own editor was grumbling about just the other day 鈥� and recalling , Ian Lang puts forward 鈥淭he Ratio of Omnibuggerance鈥�.

Sandy Dalkin posits 鈥淩incewind鈥檚 Rule鈥�, named after the hapless wizard of Pratchett鈥檚 Discworld novels, in whose experience things with a one in a million chance of happening 鈥渃rop up nine times out of 10鈥�. He also proposes 鈥淧ratchett鈥檚 Postulate鈥�.

Swiss-cheesology

THERE is, of course, a serious side to the analysis of polyfailure, and in the world of aviation it has a name. Pete Culman writes: 鈥淭he overall risk of an incident occurring is considered as the cumulative risk of a number of 鈥榣ayers鈥�, each having 鈥榟oles鈥�. The layers move with time: an incident will occur only if enough holes line up simultaneously for long enough.鈥� The prevention of this is, by visual analogy, the study of 鈥淪wiss cheese鈥�.

David Harris credits this to the psychologist . David adds, in defence of aviation in general: 鈥淥bservation shows around two human errors per flight, but these proceed to an accident in fewer than one flight in a million, about one in two million hours. The biblical 鈥榯hree score years and ten鈥� is 613,607 hours. If you spent your entire life in an airliner, you鈥檇 be unlikely to die in a crash.鈥�

Intrepid reporter in Matrix

NOMINATIVE determinism 鈥� the notion that names influence occupations 鈥� has been celebrated by our colleague Richard Webb at the 鈥� itself a celebration of 鈥渞esearch that makes people laugh, and then think鈥�.

鈥淲hat I鈥檇 really like,鈥� Richard says, 鈥渋s an assessment of the probability that, in the very week I am taking nominative determinism to the country, I should, at a schmoozing event at the Science Museum on my off night, be randomly approached by a stranger who turns out to be Roger Kneebone, professor of surgical education at Imperial College London, and subject of one of my slides, who subsequently ends up appearing in the show that just happens to be at Imperial College two nights later.鈥�

This all happened in a week when the subject of 51动漫鈥荣 cover special was chance 鈥� in which David Hand, also (no doubt coincidentally) of Imperial College, informs us that 鈥渨hat appear to be extremely improbable events occur quite often鈥�.

These would appear to be relatively benign examples of polymurphism, defined above. It leads Richard to fear that he is, in fact, living in the Matrix.

Alatrism spawns apatheism

ALATRISM is defined, largely by Feedback, as 鈥渘ot bothering to worship any deities, regardless of how many there may be鈥� (21 March). Carl Zetie suggests it 鈥渁ppears to be somewhat related to apatheism, defined as 鈥榬eally not caring whether or not there is a god or gods鈥�.鈥� Perhaps one might say that apatheism is to alatrism as atheism is to agnosticism?

The best part about being an apatheist, Carl says, 鈥渋s that it annoys militant atheists and religious fundamentalists in equal measure鈥�.

Ban this vile instrument!

FINALLY, and still considering untoward events, Nigel Perry has a plea. 鈥淎lmost every day we read that certain vile instruments have been used for drug dealing, child abuse, fraud and countless other felonies. Please support my campaign for a ban on industrial scales.鈥�